Proof Points Fast Take
Vaccinated consumers are returning to restaurants and bars.
Retail sales survey data appears to be ahead of forecast.
Increased foot traffic is helping Department Stores.
Consumers are still looking to have groceries delivered or available via curb-side pickup
Consumer spending continues its rebound according to the latest seasonally adjusted retail sales survey data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau. Through the first quarter of 2021, one of the many bright spots is that restaurants and bars appear to be showing signs of life as consumers are returning to outdoor and indoor dining. A recent report from IBM Institute for Business Value showed that vaccinated people indicated they would visit restaurant and bars 34% more than during the pandemic. This sentiment proves out with Food Services and Drinking Places showing a 13.4% increase in March.
Another area from the latest retail sales survey that showed a major uptick was the Department Store category, an indication that shoppers are starting to return to the malls. The category experienced a 13% increase from previous month with more Americans having received the vaccine. As further evidence, the IBM survey found that 73% of consumers plan to return to shopping centers and malls once they have been fully vaccinated.
Here is a breakdown from the Census Bureau for a few key retail categories:
Nonstore Retailers:
Nonstore Retailers, a category dominated by online retailers, saw an increase in sales of 6% in March.
Recent data shows that 7 in 10 consumers tried new digital shopping channels between March and August of 2020, suggesting that online retailers will need to continue to be agile and savvy to capture consumer buying power.
General Merchandise Stores:
Consumers are started to slowly embrace General Merchandise Stores. March increased 9% for the category.
This is a category to continue to watch, to see if the recent rise is a part of a growing trend or just a byproduct of pent-up demand combined with increased vaccinations.
Retail Trade:
Overall, Retail Trade has fared well. March showed that Retail Trade was solid with a 9.4% increase, helped from the sizable gains in Food Services and Drinking Places.
The NRF annual retail sales forecast, released in February, predicted that retail sales in the U.S. should have growth between 6.5% and 8.2%, which so far, aligns to what we are seeing from the Census Bureau’s data.
“Today’s data confirms reports that people are going out and spending and that in-store traffic has picked up.”
Department Stores:
As noted previously, Department Stores are experiencing a bit of a renaissance, with 13% growth in March.
According to Zenreach, retail foot traffic is up 12.5% since the start of 2021, compared to the same period in 2020.
Grocery Stores:
Throughout the pandemic, Grocery Stores have remained relatively steady. March showed a slight increase in sales of 0.5% from February.
Per Google Trends, online searches for the term “which grocery stores deliver” was up 200% in past 30 days, indicating the continued consumer desire for safety and convenience.
Food Services and Drinking Places:
Due to a combination of outdoor and indoor dining, along with curbside pick-up and delivery, Food Services and Drinking Places sales are starting to climb. As noted, March saw a 13.4% jump from February.
Moreover, consumer sentiment for visiting restaurants is improving. A recent report from Revenue Management Services which surveyed just over a thousand people in the U.S., highlighted that 44% of respondents believe dine-in will return to pre-COVID levels within the next 6 months.
The Stratistry team loves nothing more than digging deep into available data and research to derive actionable insights that can help lead your brand to achieve better business results. Contact us to find out how we can combine the art and science of marketing for your brand.
U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau Advanced Monthly Retail Trade Report 04/15/2021;